AGP Executive Report

Cross-Strait Security: Taiwan’s National Security Council chief said 53 Chinese navy and official vessels were operating across waters near Taiwan, Japan and the Philippines, calling the simultaneous threat “obvious.” Military Readiness: Taiwan grounded its Apache helicopters for gearbox inspections after a U.S. safety alert, temporarily assigning other aircraft to readiness duties. International Pressure: Pakistan restored overflight permits for China Airlines and EVA Air after a three-day ban, which its defense minister had defended as support for Beijing’s One China policy. Election Security: Taipei says China is stepping up transnational repression and election interference as Taiwan tightens safeguards. Taipei Race: A close mayoral contest between incumbent Chiang Wan-an and DPP challenger Puma Shen could shape both men’s political futures. Regional Defense: The U.S. plans to increase security funding for Philippine forces, while Japan and the U.S. agreed to jointly produce advanced air-to-air missiles in Japan.

Airspace and Diplomacy: Pakistan reversed its ban on Taiwanese carriers, restoring China Airlines and EVA Air access to its airspace through March 27 after the restriction drew attention to Beijing’s diplomatic pressure. Election Security: President Lai warned of Chinese interference as Taiwan’s local races enter their final stretch; candidates have drawn ballot numbers, and the KMT’s Chiang Wan-an faces a Taipei mayoral contest. Cross-Strait Security: US and Japanese defense chiefs agreed to strengthen deterrence along the First Island Chain, which includes Taiwan. Taiwan’s drone industry also urged internationally distributed production to keep supplies flowing in a prolonged conflict. Espionage Case: A California woman accused of spying on Lai’s son and family for China pleaded not guilty to conspiracy and acting as an unregistered foreign agent. Taiwan’s Partnerships: St. Lucia Prime Minister Philip Pierre began an official visit, with talks focused on housing, food security and youth opportunities.

Foreign Service: Taiwan removed its Geneva representative, Greg Lee, after an investigation found he bullied staff, including by yelling at and obstructing subordinates. Local Elections: Taipei mayor Chiang Wan-an faces a tighter re-election contest than expected as candidates draw ballot numbers; officials are also warning of Chinese election interference. Cross-Strait Tensions: Taiwan indicted five people over an alleged plot to attack comedian Huang Yi-hao, while Beijing denied involvement and accused the DPP of provoking confrontation. Taipei is seeking cross-party support for anti-infiltration law amendments. Beijing’s Claims: Taiwan rejected China’s postwar “restoration” commemorations, which Taipei says misuse history to press its claim over the island. Domestic Politics: President Lai Ching-te’s approval has rebounded, while a 2027 budget that includes NT$10,000 cash payments advances to committee review. Security Cooperation: Taiwan and European officials are pushing closer cooperation on drones and trusted AI supply chains.

Local Elections: Taipei mayoral candidates drew ballot numbers as the campaign entered its final stretch, with DPP candidate Puma Shen also facing warnings from U.S. think tanks about alleged Chinese efforts to influence the race. Budget: Taiwan’s 2027 budget, including a proposed NT$10,000 cash handout, has moved to committee review. Cross-Strait Tensions: Taipei rejected Beijing’s World War II “restoration” commemorations and accused it of a psychological pressure campaign; a separate report says 461 Taiwanese citizens have gone missing, been questioned or detained in China. Security: Taiwan and European partners are discussing cooperation on trusted AI and drone supply chains, while lawmakers seek cross-party backing for tougher anti-infiltration measures.

Cross-Strait Tensions: Taipei rejected Beijing’s World War II-era claim over Taiwan after China released satellite images of the capital and a military propaganda poster. Defense Minister Wellington Koo called the campaign “cognitive warfare.” Diplomacy: Saint Lucia Prime Minister Philip Pierre arrived for a five-day state visit, with talks planned with President Lai Ching-te on bilateral ties and cooperation. Election Security: Taiwan is seeking cross-party backing for amendments to its Anti-Infiltration Act, as U.S. think tanks warn Beijing may target Taipei election candidate Puma Shen. Economic Outlook: Taiwan’s central bank expects strong demand for technology exports to continue into 2027, while forecasting slower growth after this year’s sharp expansion.

Election Interference: Taiwanese entertainers with careers in China are facing scrutiny over possible efforts to sway opinion ahead of the Nov. 28 local elections. Taiwan has also accused Beijing of pressuring politicians’ families; those claims remain under investigation. Local Campaigns: KMT Taipei Mayor Chiang Wan-an opened his re-election headquarters, touting city projects, while DPP candidate Shen unveiled a waterway plan. A Taipei court rejected appeals by China-born candidates barred from the vote, and authorities are probing alleged vote-buying. Cross-Strait Tensions: Beijing’s “Taiwan recovery” commemorations drew a rebuke from Taipei, which rejected China’s claim to the island. Taiwan also reported Chinese aircraft and ships nearby as officials warned of growing military and gray-zone pressure. Defense Overhaul: Taiwan plans to expand artillery and drone units, link surveillance more closely to strike forces and strengthen coastal and air defenses. The military says delays affect three arms programs.

Military Pressure: Taiwan’s defense ministry reported three Chinese aircraft, six naval vessels and nine official ships around the island; one aircraft crossed the median line and entered Taiwan’s southwestern and eastern air defense zones. Election Interference: Authorities are probing alleged vote-buying as November’s local elections approach. Taiwan’s security bureau has warned that Chinese interference is becoming more targeted, with reports of pressure on candidates’ families. Cross-Strait Messaging: Beijing marked the 81st anniversary of Taiwan’s return from Japanese rule with events calling for reunification, while Taiwan’s survey respondents widely blamed the Chinese Communist Party for undermining cross-strait peace. Regional Ties: The Philippines denied having an arrangement with Taiwan to protect undersea cables, reaffirming its One China policy after a diplomat suggested the sides were exploring cooperation.

Cross-Strait Tensions: Beijing used the 81st anniversary of Taiwan’s recovery to renew calls for reunification, while the PLA Eastern Theater Command issued its first anniversary poster warning against “Taiwan independence.” Defense Readiness: Taiwan’s Army is replacing scripted drills with joint, unscripted exercises that require troops to react to unexpected battlefield moves. Election Security: Taiwan’s National Security Bureau has warned of more targeted Chinese interference ahead of local elections, including pressure on politicians’ families. Transnational Repression: Five men have been charged over an alleged car attack on comedian Huang Yi-hao, which prosecutors say was arranged after his jokes about Xi Jinping; activist Lee Ming-che is urging a tougher foreign-agent law, saying current rules make it hard to prosecute Beijing’s local collaborators.

Typhoon Recovery: Champi left one person dead and hundreds injured in Taiwan, with widespread power outages and damage. Election Pressure: A US-based report says Beijing is pressuring relatives of Taiwan politicians ahead of next month’s local elections, including business restrictions targeting a company owned by DPP lawmaker Puma Shen’s father. Taiwan has also warned of rising Chinese cyberattacks and election interference. Cross-Strait Politics: Taipei rejected Chinese actor Zhang Linghe’s visit request, prompting Beijing to accuse the government of politicizing cultural exchange; Taiwanese fans are divided over the decision. Defense and Supply Security: Taiwan says three weapons programs face delays as it works to strengthen air defenses, while ITRI plans a rare-earth plant intended to supply half the island’s needs by 2030 and reduce reliance on China.

Election Interference: A U.S.-based report says Beijing is pressuring relatives of Taiwanese politicians ahead of local elections, including through sanctions on a company owned by DPP lawmaker and Taipei mayoral candidate Puma Shen’s father. Taiwan’s security bureau is also tracking Chinese cyberattacks and AI-generated disinformation. Defense: U.S. Representative Ami Bera says the Trump administration has delayed a major arms sale to Taiwan despite congressional approval; he plans to press for faster delivery. Taiwan has also warned of increased Chinese activity around the island as U.S. and Japanese forces conduct regional drills. Storm Response: Typhoon Champi left one person dead and more than 500 injured, with widespread power outages and flight disruptions. Taiwan-Europe Ties: Foreign Minister Lin Chia-lung urged closer cooperation on trusted AI and drone supply chains, linking economic partnerships with national security.

Typhoon Response: Champi has moved away from Taiwan, but recovery continues: one person was killed, more than 500 injured and about 56,000 households remained without power as crews repaired storm damage. Cross-Strait Security: Taiwan says Chinese militia boats are expanding “battlefield preparation” in the western Pacific; it also reported Chinese coast guard vessels near Penghu. The island welcomed US-Japan drills focused on a Taiwan contingency. Election Integrity: Taiwan’s security agency has warned of rising Chinese disinformation ahead of local elections, while a report identified 70 candidates involved in CCP-endorsed exchanges. Transnational Repression: Five men were indicted in Taiwan over an alleged plot to run down comedian Huang Yi-hao after he mocked Xi Jinping, renewing calls to strengthen security laws. Separately, a California woman accused of spying for China by surveilling President Lai’s son pleaded not guilty. Supply Security: Taiwan’s ITRI plans a rare-earth demonstration plant targeting 500 tonnes of annual output by 2030—enough to meet half of domestic demand—as officials seek to reduce reliance on Chinese supplies.

Typhoon Response: Champi killed one person, injured hundreds and forced mass closures, evacuations and nearly 1,000 flight cancellations. President Lai urged election candidates to put public safety first. Chinese Pressure: Taiwan reported Chinese militia boats and naval vessels operating nearby, while Beijing’s envoy in Kenya renewed calls for “reunification.” Election Interference: Taiwan’s security bureau says Chinese influence efforts are becoming more targeted ahead of November’s local elections; authorities also reported 2.58 million daily cyberattack attempts. Transnational Repression: Prosecutors indicted five people over an alleged China-linked attack plot against a comedian who mocked Xi Jinping. Defense: Taiwan’s opposition-controlled legislature has left defense spending items frozen, as debate continues over a nearly $30 billion U.S. arms backlog.

Typhoon Response: Champi brought an island-wide shutdown, killing one person and injuring 94. Nearly 1,300 people were evacuated and about 1,000 flights canceled. President Lai urged local election candidates to heed warnings and avoid risky campaign events. China’s Maritime Pressure: Taiwan says Chinese militia boats are operating alongside coast guard and research vessels to expand “battlefield preparation” in the western Pacific, increasing pressure on Taiwan, Japan and the Philippines. Taiwan also reported three Chinese naval vessels and seven official ships near the island. Election Security: Taiwan’s National Security Bureau warns Beijing is using more targeted online and AI campaigns to influence voters ahead of November’s local elections. Transnational Repression: Prosecutors indicted five people over an alleged plot to injure comedian Huang Yi-hao, who mocked Xi Jinping. Taiwan is probing suspected China-linked organizing behind the attack.

Typhoon Response: Taiwan ordered schools and offices closed across most of the island Friday as Typhoon Champi approached, with flights canceled and the stock market set to suspend trading. Election Security: Taiwan’s National Security Bureau warned that China-linked cyberattacks and disinformation are becoming more targeted ahead of November’s local elections, including the use of AI to influence voters. Transnational Repression: Prosecutors indicted five men over an alleged plot to run over a comedian who mocked Xi Jinping; authorities are also investigating possible organized-crime links to China. Defense: Despite passage of a supplementary budget, defense items remain stalled on the legislative agenda, while a proposed US$14 billion US arms sale to Taiwan is still held up in Washington. Cross-Strait Tensions: More than half of respondents in a MAC poll blamed the Chinese Communist Party for undermining peace across the Taiwan Strait. Supply-Chain Security: TSMC is seeking factory equipment that avoids Chinese-controlled rare-earth magnets, aiming to reduce the risk of supply disruptions.

Typhoon Disruptions: Champi triggered a land warning, cancelled more than 200 flights and forced changes to US-Japan drills as Taiwan braced for heavy rain and dangerous coastal waves. Election Security: Taiwan’s security chief says China’s interference is becoming more targeted, including suspected illicit funding, discounted travel to influence voters, disinformation and hacking ahead of November’s local elections. Transnational Repression: Taiwan is probing organized-crime links to suspected China-backed intimidation; five people have been indicted over an alleged plot to injure comedian Huang Yihao, who mocks Xi Jinping. US Arms Sales: A proposed $14 billion weapons package for Taiwan remains stalled as President Trump weighs approval, raising questions about the strength of Washington’s security commitment.

Political Intimidation: Taiwan prosecutors charged five men over an alleged plot to injure comedian Huang Yi-hao, who mocked Xi Jinping. Prosecutors say a person in China paid the group; the case has renewed concerns about cross-border pressure on critics. Election Security: Taiwan’s security agency warned of rising Chinese disinformation ahead of local elections, while prosecutors are seeking to detain a former Taitung magistrate in a corruption probe. Regional Tensions: The Chinese Embassy in Manila accused the Philippine defense chief of challenging Beijing’s One China position after he shared a post describing Taiwan as self-governed. Separately, Japan and the United States began major drills near Taiwan, involving tens of thousands of troops and long-range missiles. Taiwan’s Partnerships: Palau’s president celebrated his country’s independence in Taipei, affirming the right of nations to choose their own course. Labor Dispute: Micron reached a deal with its Taichung union, but a planned Taoyuan strike over profit-sharing remains on the agenda.